Russia Invades Ukraine
I wont claim to understand all of the complex politics of the region in question, but I believe I’m as entitled to my opinion on this crisis as anyone.
As I’ve seen it, Putin wants to recreate the old USSR and has been pushing to do so long before all of the Trump controversy or this current invasion. In 2014 Russia annexed territory that was and is still somewhat considered part of Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine had an agreement whereby they would share the military port at Sevastopol, where Russia’s Black Sea Fleet had been stationed since coming under Russian control. Pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych upon assuming office in 2010 extended the lease for Russian use of the port until 2042.
However, he fled Ukraine in February 2014 amid a large-scale protests, called Euromaidan. The protests were started by his refusal to sign an agreement for closer ties with the European Union.
Almost immediately problems began in Crimea. Within days strange bands of armed gunmen, called “little green men” began seizing government buildings in Crimea. They obviously looked like regular Russian military forces but according to Putin they were local members of “self-defence groups.”
With very little notice, in March 2014 Crimeans held a referendum, which was boycotted by the opposition, that overwhelmingly voted for their region to become a part of Russia although there were no international observers to verify the result. The United Nations and most of the world sees Crimea’s secession vote as illegitimate.
Shortly after the referendum Putin signed accession treaty making Crimea part of the Russian Federation once again. To punish Moscow, the US and European Union imposed economic sanctions on Russia but they had little effect on Putin’s posture toward returning Crimea to Ukraine.
This action was my first clue as to what plans Putin had in place for Russia and at the time, many people seemed not to notice. However, as the years have gone on, it has become clear to the international community that Putin’s agenda is to thwart NATO as well as re-form the Soviet Union. The annexation of the Crimea was a first step. There is no need to invade Belarus as Alexander Lukaschenko is in league with Putin.
The international community has more than condemned the current invasion of Ukraine and many countries are currently sending aid. Including historically neutral European countries, which is unprecedented. There have been worldwide protests against the invasion of Ukraine as well as many charities and organizations being founded in support of their [Ukraine’s] cause.
I think that Putin thought it would be easy to invade Ukraine, but he has turned out to be wrong. As long as Ukraine can turn this into a war of attrition, Russia is more likely to capitulate. Economic sanctions and the unpopularity of the action will contribute to this capitulation. As we saw in Vietnam/Afghanistan with the USA, the longer a war goes on, the worse it becomes for the invader. It costs more, it loses lives and in this case, it threatens Putin’s power.
This action by Putin cannot go unpunished and I think that the international community needs to step in and take direct action. I believe that the nuclear posturing by Putin is a bluff and that if NATO stands by and does nothing it will set a bad precedent. This cannot happen as China has positioned itself to invade Taiwan and there needs to be an example made. China cannot be allowed to invade Taiwan. Russia and China should not be allowed to expand their empires by force. These are all direct threats to the world at large.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres addressed the UN General Assembly Monday in its first emergency meeting since 1982, saying of the Russian invasion “enough is enough.”
“The fighting in Ukraine must stop,” he said.
The top UN leader also called Russian putting nuclear defenses on alert “a chilling development.”
“The mere idea of a nuclear development is simply inconceivable,” Guterres said, adding “nothing can justify the use of nuclear weapons.”
He said United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has estimated a half a million Ukrainians have fled the country, and there are credible reports of damage to residential buildings and critical civilian infrastructure. The UN leader called the death of civilians, including children, “totally unacceptable.”
Guterres expressed hopes that direct talks between Ukraine and Russian delegations would welcome an immediate stop to the fighting and a diplomatic solution.
“The sovereignty of Ukraine must be respected,” he said earlier.
Russia is facing universal condemnation and increased sanctions from countries across Europe over its unprovoked assault on Ukraine, and more moves are being announced each day.
If you’re just reading in today, here’s a look at the latest actions by European countries against Russia:
EU closes its airspace to Russia, including the private jets of oligarchs
On Sunday, the EU announced it is closing its airspace to Russia, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.
“We are proposing a prohibition on all Russian-owned, Russian-registered and Russian-controlled aircraft. These aircraft will no more be able to land in, take off or overfly the territory of the European Union. This will apply to any plane,” von der Leyen said.
“Our airspace will be closed to every Russian plane. And that includes the private jets of oligarchs too,” she added.
The UK has also banned Russian private jets from its airspace on Friday.
Russian state media outlets banned
Top EU diplomat Josep Borrell also announced a ban for Russian news outlets Russia Today and Sputnik.
Speaking in a joint news conference in Brussels on Sunday, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy announced that the bloc would ban the two outlets in a bid “to fight” Russian disinformation.
“Today we are taking a crucial step to turn off the tap for the Russian’s information manipulation in Europe by banning Russia Today and Sputnik from broadcasting in the European Union,” Borrell said. “We are killing the snake on its neck.”
Central bank reserves of Russia blocked by new sanctions
More than half of the central bank reserves of Russia will be blocked as part of new EU sanctions against the country, Borrell said Sunday.
Measures against neighboring country, Belarus will also be “reinforced,” Borrell said, in return for its role in “facilitating the Russian assault against Ukraine.”
Von der Leyen also announced that the EU will provide finance to purchase weapons for Ukraine, adding that this is the first time the bloc has ever done so.
Borrell said the EU is doing so “because this war requires our engagement in order to support the Ukrainian army.”
“We asked for SWIFT and we asked for arms and now we are delivering on both sides,” the diplomat remarked.
Switzerland will forego “Swiss neutrality” and adopt the same sanctions as EU against Russia
On Monday, Switzerland announced that it will forego its commitment to “Swiss neutrality” in favor of adopting sanctions against Russia, Swiss Federal President Ignazio Cassis said, adding that Switzerland’s sanctions will be in line with those already adopted by the European Union.
“The Swiss Federal Council has decided today to fully adopt EU sanctions,” Cassis said during a news briefing. “It is an unparalleled action of Switzerland, who has always stayed neutral before.”
“Russia’s attack is an attack on freedom, an attack on democracy, an attack on the civil population, and an attack on the institutions of a free country. This cannot be accepted regarding international law, this cannot be accepted politically, and this cannot be accepted morally,” Cassis added.
Norway’s energy giant Equinor to exit its partnerships in Russia
Norwegian oil and gas company Equinor will stop all new investments in Russia and begin to exit its joint ventures there, the company said in a statement Monday.
“We are all deeply troubled by the invasion of Ukraine, which represents a terrible setback for the world,” said Anders Opedal, president and CEO of Equinor.
The company said it had $1.2 billion in long-term investments in Russia at the end of 2021. It has operated in Russia for more than 30 years and has a cooperation agreement with Russia’s state-owned oil company Rosneft.
This is significant because the Norwegian government owns two-thirds of Equinor, according to the company’s website. On Sunday, the Norwegian government also announced in a statement that it will ask its sovereign wealth fund to divest from Russia. The fund describes itself as one of the world’s largest, holding 1.5% of all shares in global listed companies.
Several European football associations announce they will not play international football fixtures against Russia until further notice
Wales, Scotland, Ireland, Denmark, Norway, Switzerland and Albania followed in the footsteps of England, Czech Republic, Sweden and Poland in refusing to face Russia at any level of international football.
Popular former political prisoners and rock band, Pussy Riot has also founded Ukraine DAO in association with Trippy Labs and Pleasr DAO. They have begun an NFT project as well as taking crypto currency donations in support of Ukraine. I believe they have raised between 4–8 million dollars in digital currency and there is no sign of the crypto community slowing down their donations. Polygon Alliance is also taking art donations from NFT artist all over the world in order to release a project in support of Ukraine. I know this is true because I have personally donated Ethereum and art to this cause. I do not agree with this war, if you couldn’t already tell…
When one lines up Putin and Zelensky next to one another, it is easy to see who the bad guy is. Despite false reports of genocide, racism and Ukrainians “wanting Russia to save them,” the world has rallied behind Zelensky and his cause. It is clear the Ukrainian people stand with their President and that the reports of unrest and genocide seem to me to be untrue. Misinformation spread by The Kremlin in order to justify this unjustifiable invasion of a sovereign nation, Ukraine. To threaten nuclear action is the move of a desperate man who realizes his plan did not come to fruition. Putin needed this invasion to happen fast and easy, but it did not, the Ukraine is still putting up a stiff resistance even as I write this article.
“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in its fifth day Monday, has been stymied by a fierce, creative resistance and apparently poor planning by the Russian military, U.S. Defense officials and experts say.” -USA Today
A Ukrainian cyber guerrilla warfare group plans to launch digital sabotage attacks against critical Russian infrastructure such as railways and the electricity grid, to strike back at Moscow over its invasion, a hacker team coordinator told Reuters.
Joe Biden is due to give the State of the Union address just hours from now, as a US citizen, I can tell you we do not support this war! We do not support Putin! Those small fringe groups whom do are just that, fringe groups. The majority of the world is behind the Ukrainian cause and President Zelensky.
As one can see, Biden and Zelensky are on the same page. And I for one think Zelensky is the type of leader a country needs. I respect that he was offered asylum by many other countries and he stayed to fight with his people.
The main constraints on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were never the threat of Western sanctions or intelligence-based exposure of its preparations. In retrospect, even the negotiations between Russia and the West look like theatre. The real constraints were domestic and geopolitical: Russia’s domestic stability and its place in the future global order. One assumed that President Vladimir Putin would weigh his obsession with Ukraine against these other needs. But he did not: he prioritised Ukraine over everything else. This gamble will cause a dramatic shift in Russia’s domestic development and geopolitical prospects.
It seemed that Russia’s geopolitical interests would have called for a diplomatic solution. But by upending its relationship with the West through a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia drifted further into China’s orbit. This should not have been in Moscow’s interest. Rather, it seemed clear that Moscow enjoyed being on speaking terms with both Washington and Beijing — as this enhanced its influence on both of them, created space for hedging, and formed a good basis for cultivating relationships and acting as a power broker in countries across the Middle East and Africa. Russia’s foreign policy elite feared the prospect of China’s takeover of Taiwan exactly because this would have created the kind of bipolar world order that made such balancing untenable.
Furthermore, Russia’s ‘heavy-metal’ diplomacy — its use of military threats to force the West to discuss topics it did not want to discuss — was working. US President Joe Biden had offered to discuss some arms control measures with Putin, there was new diplomatic energy around the Minsk agreement, and some form of tacit agreement to ensure Ukraine would not join NATO seemed plausible. Of course, the means were ugly: Russia had taken Ukraine hostage, held a gun to its head, and dictated terms to the West, which had no other way to defend Ukraine that it felt was acceptable. Still, Moscow had opened a path that — with time, patience, and diplomatic seriousness — could have allowed it to achieve at least some of its goals.
In addition, there was a domestic situation characterized by one feeling above all others: tiredness. Russian society is exhausted with the political status quo, even though it lacks the means and energy to change it. Russian elites — who had been expecting signs of renewal at the top ever since the 2018 presidential election — were equally tired and demoralized. An all-out war with Ukraine was never going to be popular in Russia; instead of boosting Putin’s popularity as the 2014 annexation of Crimea did, it is a huge stress test for the entire political system and the domestic stability Putin values so highly.
One can only speculate about whether the negotiations with Western leaders were always just a smokescreen to buy time until the Russian military was ready for war or were part of an attempt to see what could be gained through diplomacy. In the latter case, we also do not know what made Putin eventually decide against the diplomatic path. For now, only one thing is clear: Putin prioritized his personal obsession above Russia’s interests. And he likely did so almost single-handedly: the broadcast earlier this week of a meeting of the Security Council showed a series of visibly fearful officials trying to come up with statements they thought were expected of them. None of it suggested that many of them were consulted in advance.
The invasion marked the beginning of a new era for not just the European security order but also Russian society. The domestic system will become even more authoritarian; the government will increasingly stifle public debate. More independent and creative Russians will leave elite circles; more will emigrate. The state’s capacity for good governance will decrease; tiredness and hidden protest will grow. It will be a long time before this process saps Russia’s vitality enough to manifest in true changes, but it is safe to say that Putin has planted a bomb under his personalized system of governance.
Meanwhile, the European security order will once again be shaped by open confrontation. On a certain level, this may have a silver lining. The attempts to adhere to concepts of a bygone era — be it ‘Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok’ or ‘each country has the right to choose its alliances’ have prevented Europeans from taking a clear-eyed view of reality and defending their interests in the world as it is, not as they wish it to be. But this is also a contest in which the outcome is far from certain. As a colleague recently put it, the West may be discussing how to isolate Russia, but Russia is working to isolate the West — and may believe that it is succeeding. It will take clever prioritization, investment of resources, and diplomacy to prove Russia wrong on that score.
I hope that NATO is preparing for what is to come. This invasion cannot be allowed to succeed and we must push for peace in the region. It is not in the best interest of the world for the USSR to become whole again, nor for it to be a world power in that capacity. There should not be a precedent for China to invade Taiwan. We do not need a nuclear escalation of this conflict and I would hope delegates from Russia are taking peace talks seriously and not using them as a smoke screen. I stand with Ukraine and the UN and NATO in saying that this invasion is an unacceptable unilateral action by Russia and the reaction must be swift and effective to stop Russia’s current agenda.
